What Happens in China... Does not Stay there...

A Mushroom Update....

China is to our trades like the wind was to the Clipper Ships!

And this week starts with a warning that is summed up best in this sentence in a very insightful read by Paul B Farrell of Market Watch:

"China’s Super Rich and America’s Super Rich are both self-destructing"

This comes as seemingly the bottom was struck on Mushrooms and price rebound took place. Over the last days with a heavy cold in both Europe and China mushroom packers have had problems. The demand by Europe Markets and the return of the cash paying Russians have been perceived by packers as sufficient reason to test hikes. Unexpectedly, there was little resistance by the new buyers. It seems that orders are being cut and negotiations are going slowly as new test highs are reached.

Just When You Thought

Reported today from Action Forex:
EURUSD (NEUTRAL): The breach of 133.20 signals that we will see 135 again. We expect that the level at about 135 will be the top this time around, and that March will see a turnaround of the short-term EURUSD uptrend. With respect to the timing, we think the turnaround will take place Thursday to Monday next week/the following week. If, on the other hand, it turns out that equities and commodity prices rise by further 5-10% in the wake of the ECB’s 3-year funding, the cross rate may go as high as 145, but we definitely do not expect this to happen.


Great... This on clear indications that several of our product's markets will turn short now for another reason, a higher Euro. 


From Saffron to Olives... at current 18 month low price levels the tide has appeared to have turned....


Booking your spring products from Artichokes to closing open needs of annual crops (Olives) is critical to insure consistent supply lines for the next 12 months of both quality and stocks, if not already done!

Or you could be holding the next Dollar Bill...

A Slight Disconnect

What we Fear in the Food Trade as producers and distributors is more basic than what the public fears. Here's an interesting report showing that we in the trade are first a foremost thinking of Food Safety.  The public thinks we are poisoning them and are most worried about additives.

Market News Updates

Here's a link to a very accurate market report for Tuna to Mushrooms from the experts at Rema.

The only thing to question is the Euro€ / US$ equation with an apparent resistance level found at.1.30 in recent days. Also, importers are in a quandary as to what level to price vs. forecast. While importers can't go out too far we all have to cover real costs in rapidly descending markets.

Updates on FSMA

The Food Safety Modification Act is one of the many things along quickly as we speed into 2012.  Here's an update as to the FDA portion and its impact on imported foods:

During the first year of FSMA, FDA has completed a number initial implementation steps, including:

• Consumer-Friendly Web Search for Recalls. FDA launched a more consumer- friendly recall search engine on the FDA website.
• Guidance to Seafood Industry on Food Safety Hazards. FDA issued its updated guide to the seafood industry on hazards associated with fish and fishery products and appropriate controls for those hazards.
• Administrative Detention of Foods. Allows FDA to administratively detain food products that it has reason to believe are adulterated or misbranded for up to 30 days, if needed. FDA has begun using this authority.
• Prior Notice of Imported Food. FDA issued an interim final rule that requires a person submitting prior notice of imported food, including food for animals, to report the name of any country to which the article has been refused entry.
• Joint Anti-Smuggling Strategy. FDA and the Department of Homeland Security issued a joint anti-smuggling strategy to help to identify and prevent smuggled foods from entering the U.S. and posing a threat to national security and consumer safety.
• Fee Schedule. FDA announced the fiscal year 2012 fee schedule for certain domestic and foreign facility reinspections and for failure to comply with recall orders.
• Authority to Suspend the Registration of Food Facilities. FDA has the authority to suspend the registration of food facilities to prevent the import and export into the U.S. in certain circumstances involving food that has a reasonable probability of causing serious adverse health consequences or death to humans or animals.
• Product Tracing Pilots Launched. FDA announced that the Institute of Food Technologists (IFT) will carry out two new pilot projects aimed at enhancing the agency’s and industry’s ability to trace products responsible for foodborne illness outbreaks.

Much more can be found at the FDA's web site. The site continues to improve. http://www.fda.gov/

Where to from here? 12/20

From Europe’s Debt Crisis to the US Congress’ inability find compromise on the Payroll Tax Extension, the volatile Currency markets continue to make pricing a dilemma for those of us in import trades.

Nothing in the short term looks to favor less volatility though we expect the bad news out of Europe to over shadow the bad news out of the USA in this coming election year. Range is going to be pushing even lower for the Euro over the next quarter.

Our view on products:
Artichokes: Short if not Booked. Market prices stable while import prices down slightly.

Mandarins Satsuma: The very high opening prices are meeting resistance from importers. Let’s see where they settle but quantities better be committed and secured in the long run as the production season is shorter due to Chinese New Year coming early this year and the changing economic times continue a course resulting in shortages for the year.

Spanish Mandarins are not a full option again yet but headed that way. Clementines may show up in the US markets later this season.  

Olives: One of the few markets that on the surface appears to have a good enough raw material supply. However, while the prices are low, credit in Spain is difficult to obtain resulting in unpicked fruits still hanging on the trees. This may be good for OILS but not so good for the curing or ripening process of Green Table Olives or Black Ripe Olives.  A shortage may be looming.

Rumors persist of the lack of continued financing hurting coops when time comes to pay for the crops to members as well as to solvency issues with private industry producers.

Happy End of Year Holidays to all! Watch out in 2012!

Mandarin Oranges

Mandarin Oranges have no carry over in China from last year and importers are running out. Production this new season will be shortened (Chinese New Year impact). All expenses are up for packers.

What this means is:
1) wide quality variations in finished goods.
2) inconsistencies under certain labels.
3) prices will continue to CLIMB HIGHER...

Please, if not already done, BOOK NOW with us or we risk not having product on hand this coming year for your needs.

Disasters in our Business come in Many Forms

Report out of New Zealand bring the risks of our trade to the forefront.

We who import know the term GENERAL AVERAGES, that age old sharing of risk that costs plenty when applied. Here it is not clear if that will be the case.

The world remains a risky place.

Forecasts and Reality Bloomberg article show much the same. Ok, ok...

US Dollar Direction??

The Street David Song's DailyFX has a nice article saying among other things this morning

"we may see the rebound from 1.3145 gather pace as market sentiment improves. As a result, the EUR/USD may work its way back towards the 61.8% Fib around 1.3880-1.3900, but the single-currency is likely to face additional headwinds over the near-term as the fundamental outlook for the euro-area deteriorates."

here's a look back...

We'll see in the coming days what's forward...(Flipped is 2003 .99 cents to 2007's 1.468)

There appears to be a continued race between the US and the EU's economies to see which disaster will trump the next. And it looks like we lack the imagination and political will on both continents to work towards real solutions.

From the #OccupyWallStreet to the #TeaParty here in the USA to the demonstrations of the "Acampadas" in Spain and elsewhere the level of frustration grows.

The perception is good governance is not possible.

The feeling grows that disaster is just around the corner.

So what's new?

US $ Surging Bull Matching early Summer Forecasts

Earlier this summer the forecast from DailyFX was Sept 2011 at 1.318. They revised further to 1.4011...

Today the US $ is the Bull in the market. You can hear today's report HERE the title showing all the tendancies of the day : US Dollar Explodes on Fresh Injection of Fear 


The FED's actions yesterday have us entering a new level along with the continued uncertainty in the rest of the eco-zones. Listen as long as you need to get today's flavor.

We are going to continue to be long with EUROS to be able to pass on price savings as soon as they are realized. Stay tuned!

Expanding Health Safety?

USDA announces expanded testing for SALMONELLA explained in this NYTimes article.