Olives New Season Approaches

Good Day from the world of Olives:

 

New season 1st forecast:

 

Queens:

 

-2007 : short stocks available; vendors holding their open quantities for usual buyers.

 

-2008/09 : less quantity than 2007 /prices about the same or slightly higher. Higher average temp along Winter 2008 implies less yield per tree. Official forecast (COAG) call for drop from 35 mill kgs -07 to 20 million 08; though we all believe the 35 mill kilos in 2007 is a "mental abstraction" of the guy who made the figure.

 

Shortage of queens as rule is helping brokers to sell some other varieties (Spanish or non Spanish) labeled "gordal"-

Hailstorms reported recently in prime Queen Growing areas (Dos Hermanas, Utrera and Mairena) with unknown (but not positive) impact on potential harvest. Damages for sure.

 

 Manzanilla

 

Not too many problems but QT forecasted at less 10% then last season; same for hojiblanca.

 

In my opinion (MRU) drastic fall on sales in the domestic market (and other major markets as well) plus very large stocks unsold from 2007 (and I am talking about manz/hoji) will hold prices in the "low side"...The 10% reduction of the crop COAG (Coordinadora de Organizaciones Agricultores y Ganaderos) is talking about means nothing compared to :

 

poor sales

large inventory

terrible domestic situation

 

 

Best regards

 MRU

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AEW