Olives Looking Good

The Olive Crop is looking solid in Spain... Prices should moderate. The only issue is the continued fall-out of the economic disasters in Spain and the shortage of credit.

To finance the the finished harvest is no small expense. Like with Artichokes earlier this year, fiscally responsible public (and private) companies are trying to be sure they are in balance and are not producing without buyer's contracts. Even the Coops have, albeit in different forms, problems of credit though I expect they are obliged to take in and cure material.

But the crop looks good with the exception of 240/260 calibrated Manzanilla, the most popular stuffing size of this variety. The Manz are running very small.

Short Term Olive Oil Trend

Since last market report market the trend has confirmed a continued firmness on prices of extra virgin oil due to limited stocks of last year crop.

Co-ops are doing their best to optimize value of current stocks during interim term (ie old/new crop overlap)by keeping the spigot tight.

New crop looks to be good ,therefore this trend should start turning over and heading the other way by mid November.

Buy only to spot needs until the new crop prices become apparent and the market circumstances change.

The Dollar's real Value... In Goods...

More on the impact of the falling dollar and when enough is too much by Gongloff of the WSJ. As the US $ reaches for record lows again against a Basket of currencies he holds forth the latest/greatest tools of economic wizardry of prediction that looks to prices in real goods. What does using the iPOD costing or the real effective exchange rate index compiled by the Bank for International Settlements he concludes the eventual obvious with:

"Unfortunately, this is all so much theory. In reality, the dollar is arguably underpriced against some currencies, such as the euro, and overpriced against others, such as China's yuan."

The Weakening US Dollar

"Measured in euros, U.S. per capita GDP is down 25%" ...

Transfer of wealth has been underway for a while. I saw gas prices at 1 euro per liter. That's $3.86 per gallon... I remember when the US Empire and Power has us 3 to 4 times less... Soon we'll be paying the same in the US as in Europe.