While Greece is getting into the news, it is a serious issue as well for the next pegs up in the European Community's economic pecking order with Portugal, Italy and Spain facing serious problems in the coming days that may lead to further erosion of the economic platform of the EURO.
Spain is at + 20% unemployment. Both individuals and companies are not able to get proper credit to continue to operate. What a mess SPAIN has in front of her. As one friend told me, this is the worse crisis since the Civil War!
28 February 2010
23 February 2010
Let's Chat Olives...
The Rain in Spain fall mainly on Andalusia!
And it has done so for the last 5 months. The result? The early prediction is in and the Olive Crop is going to be short this Fall's harvest....
And it has done so for the last 5 months. The result? The early prediction is in and the Olive Crop is going to be short this Fall's harvest....
17 February 2010
China and the Expanding Middle Class
Currency values are related as you all know. But related to Politics too. China appears set to recognize that their undervalued currency and surcharged economy needs managing... I am not sure 5% is in the cards for this year.
Who ever thought the Communists would be so conservative! Wait. Of course they are!
Click the title to see the article quoting Goldman Sach's Chief Economist.
Who ever thought the Communists would be so conservative! Wait. Of course they are!
Click the title to see the article quoting Goldman Sach's Chief Economist.
10 February 2010
Spain Economic Outlook...
Paul Krugman describes the "EUROMESS".
To synopsize and quote: "Spain’s troubles are not...the result of fiscal irresponsibility...they reflect “asymmetric shocks” within the eurozone, which ...have turned out to be an even worse problem than the euroskeptics feared.
"Spain, real estate prices soared after 2000... massive inflows of capital; Germany moved into huge current account surplus ... Spain moved into huge deficit.
"These big capital inflows raised demand for Spanish goods and services...(&)...higher inflation in Spain than in Germany.
"Bubble burst, leaving Spain with much reduced domestic demand — and highly uncompetitive within the euro area thanks to the rise in its prices and labor costs. If Spain had had its own currency, that currency might have appreciated during the real estate boom, then depreciated when the boom was over. Since it didn’t and doesn’t, however, Spain now seems doomed to suffer years of grinding deflation and high unemployment."
The trend is clear but the outcome not.
To synopsize and quote: "Spain’s troubles are not...the result of fiscal irresponsibility...they reflect “asymmetric shocks” within the eurozone, which ...have turned out to be an even worse problem than the euroskeptics feared.
"Spain, real estate prices soared after 2000... massive inflows of capital; Germany moved into huge current account surplus ... Spain moved into huge deficit.
"These big capital inflows raised demand for Spanish goods and services...(&)...higher inflation in Spain than in Germany.
"Bubble burst, leaving Spain with much reduced domestic demand — and highly uncompetitive within the euro area thanks to the rise in its prices and labor costs. If Spain had had its own currency, that currency might have appreciated during the real estate boom, then depreciated when the boom was over. Since it didn’t and doesn’t, however, Spain now seems doomed to suffer years of grinding deflation and high unemployment."
The trend is clear but the outcome not.
09 February 2010
The Dollars Rock and Roll Ride and Costing
The last 4 weeks have seen a 6% + strengthening of the US Dollar rate vs. the EURO! And since early December 8 short weeks ago that change is over nearly 11%!
There were reports about the overvalued EURO etc but this is pretty fast. Inventory you own are 11 % high in spot terms.
What a ride! Will it continue and to what level. Like the weather man on the news, look out the window and predict what you see to continue and you'll be right every day until you are wrong one day. Then change your forecast to be right again!
There is now no certain bottom. The fluctuations, like climate change, is going to have storms like we have not seen on our life times!
Enjoy the ride!
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